IvyArcIvyArc
3

Capturing

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 94

Belmont Park · Race 9 - Floral Park Stakes · 6f

#6

Rank

Odds

15/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.

Class-adjusted form 3.8 /10 (raw 2.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 09/02/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 1m Fm 1189/02C6C6 @ Gulfstream 05/04/2025 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 96 · 1m110y Fm 120 · below its mark05/04/2025 · OR 96 parC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 09/05/2025 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR 96 · 1m110y 122 · below its mark09/05/2025 · OR 96 par9/05C6OR 96C6 @ Gulfstream 27/12/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 88 · 1m110y Fm 118 · below its mark27/12/2025 · OR 88 parC6 @ Gulfstream 20/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 86 · 5f Fm 121 · below its mark20/02/2026 · OR 86 par20/02C6OR 86C5 @ Keeneland 18/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 83 · 5f110y Fm 124 · beat its mark18/04/2026 · OR 83 parC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 17/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 93 · 6f Fm 123 · below its mark17/05/2026 · OR 93 par17/05C6OR 93C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 14/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 94 · 6f Fm 123 · below its mark14/06/2026 · OR 94 parC6 @ Saratoga 10/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 92 · 5f110y Fm 126 · beat its mark10/07/2026 · OR 92 par10/07C6OR 92projClass-projected finish: 8th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-07-10Saratoga?1st2nd−1
2026-06-14Belmont At The Big A?3rd4th−1
2026-05-17Belmont At The Big A?5th6th−1
2026-04-18Keeneland?1st2nd−1
2026-02-20Gulfstream?3rd4th−1
2025-12-27Gulfstream?3rd4th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today9/0227/1217/0510/07
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1245% of fieldRange 3-12 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength35%

Delivery trend +2.9% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
09/02/20251st11/271%100%+0.29
05/04/20252nd5/287%83%-0.04
09/05/20253rd7/282%0%-0.82
27/12/20253rd4/179%75%-0.04
20/02/20263rd15/261%78%+0.17
18/04/20261st15/261%100%+0.39
17/05/20265th7/282%43%-0.39
14/06/20263rd7/163%67%+0.04
10/07/20261st13/266%100%+0.34