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7

Delightful Flame

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 92

Belmont Park · Race 9 - Floral Park Stakes · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#7

Class Advantage Projection

Class readPROGRESSIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength8%

What the class read says

Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own.

Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC6 @ Gulfstream 12/04/2024 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 4f110y Fas 11512/04C6C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 16/05/2024 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR - · 5f110y Slo 119C5 @ Ellis Park 22/07/2024 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 50 · 6f Fas 117 · beat its mark22/07/2024 · OR 50 par22/07C5OR 50C7 @ Belmont At The Big A 20/06/2025 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 61 · 6f Fm 118 · beat its mark20/06/2025 · OR 61 parC5 @ Saratoga 07/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 80 · 5f110y Fm 118 · below its mark07/08/2025 · OR 80 par7/08C5OR 80C7 @ Belmont At The Big A 25/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 77 · 6f Slo 120 · below its mark25/09/2025 · OR 77 parC6 @ Belmont At The Big A 26/10/2025 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 84 · 6f Fm 118 · beat its mark26/10/2025 · OR 84 par26/10C6OR 84C6 @ Belmont At The Big A 14/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 84 · 6f Fm 121 · beat its mark14/06/2026 · OR 84 parC5 @ Saratoga 14/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 89 · 5f110y Gd 124 · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 89 par14/08C5OR 89projClass-projected finish: 5th of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-14Saratoga?2nd2nd0
2026-06-14Belmont At The Big A?1st2nd−1
2025-10-26Belmont At The Big A?2nd3rd−1
2025-09-25Belmont At The Big A?2nd4th−2
2025-08-07Saratoga?9th9th0
2025-06-20Belmont At The Big A?2nd4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0420/0626/1014/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1264% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength91%

Delivery trend +8.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/04/20246th10/1195%17%-0.79
16/05/20241st6/492%100%+0.08
22/07/20241st5/287%100%+0.13
20/06/20252nd16/116%89%+0.73
07/08/20259th16/116%0%-0.16
25/09/20252nd9/153%86%+0.33
26/10/20252nd8/158%86%+0.28
14/06/20261st7/491%100%+0.09
14/08/20262nd12/137%83%+0.46