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Love Cervere

4yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 99

Belmont Park · Race 9 - Floral Park Stakes · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#4

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼3
Strength98%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.2 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C1.1
Today:
Class gap: +3.4
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Woodbine 21/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 106 · 6f110y Gd 122 · beat its mark21/06/2025 · OR 106 par21/06C5OR 106C5 @ Saratoga 07/08/2025 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 104 · 5f110y Fm 122 · below its mark07/08/2025 · OR 104 parC5 @ Kentucky Downs 06/09/2025 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 102 · 6f110y Gd 122 · below its mark06/09/2025 · OR 102 par6/09C5OR 102C1 @ Belmont At The Big A 11/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 105 · 6f Fm 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/10/2025 · OR 105 parC1 @ Woodbine 08/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 14 · OR 105 · 7f 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark08/11/2025 · OR 105 par8/11C1OR 105C0 @ Keeneland 12/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 107 · 5f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 107 parC5 @ Belmont At The Big A 03/05/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 105 · 6f Fm 124 · beat its mark03/05/2026 · OR 105 par3/05C5OR 105C0 @ Saratoga 04/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 105 · 5f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark04/06/2026 · OR 105 parC0 @ Kentucky Downs 29/08/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 105 · 6f110y Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 105 par29/08C?OR 105projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Kentucky Downs?9th4th+4
2026-06-04Saratoga?4th-1th+4
2026-05-03Belmont At The Big A?1st1st0
2026-04-12Keeneland?7th2nd+4
2025-11-08Woodbine?3rd-2th+4
2025-10-11Belmont At The Big A?1st-4th+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0611/103/0529/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1291% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength95%

Delivery trend +2.2% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/06/20251st2/189%100%+0.11
07/08/20253rd2/189%75%-0.14
06/09/20252nd13/891%91%-0.01
11/10/20251st5/287%100%+0.13
08/11/20253rd9/276%85%+0.08
12/04/20267th16/116%40%+0.24
03/05/20261st3/184%100%+0.16
04/06/20264th20/10%63%+0.63
29/08/20269th12/137%11%-0.26