2
Lovely Emma
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 100
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Floral Park Stakes · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.1
Today:
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Ellis Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-03 | Churchill Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-04-22 | Keeneland | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-06 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-01-10 | Fair Grounds | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-10-15 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▲
Strength59%
Delivery trend +5.0% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/05/2025 | 9th | 3/1 | 84% | 0% | -0.84 |
| 06/07/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 50% | -0.03 |
| 22/08/2025 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 57% | -0.27 |
| 15/10/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 64% | -0.13 |
| 10/01/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 06/02/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 03/06/2026 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 29% | -0.60 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 67% | -0.04 |