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8

Movin' On Up

5yo Mare · 9-0 · OR 103

Belmont Park · Race 9 - Floral Park Stakes · 6f

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▼4
Strength96%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.0 /10 (raw 3.4)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.4
Today:
Class gap: +4.1
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Saratoga 10/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 110 · 1m Fm 124 · below its mark10/07/2025 · OR 110 par10/07C5OR 110C1 @ Kentucky Downs 30/08/2025 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 114 · 1m 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark30/08/2025 · OR 114 parC5 @ Gulfstream 20/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 112 · 1m Fm 121 · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 112 par20/12C5OR 112C0 @ Gulfstream 24/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 116 · 1m110y Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark24/01/2026 · OR 116 parC1 @ Gulfstream 28/02/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 114 · 1m Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark28/02/2026 · OR 114 par28/02C1OR 114C0 @ Keeneland 12/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 116 · 5f110y Fm 122 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 116 parC0 @ Churchill Downs 02/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 120 · 1m Fm 118 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 120 par2/05C?OR 120C0 @ Saratoga 11/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 118 · 5f110y 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark11/07/2026 · OR 118 parC0 @ Kentucky Downs 29/08/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 114 · 6f110y Fm 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark29/08/2026 · OR 114 par29/08C?OR 114projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 12
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Kentucky Downs?7th2nd+4
2026-07-11Saratoga?1st-4th+4
2026-05-02Churchill Downs?4th-1th+4
2026-04-12Keeneland?3rd-2th+4
2026-02-28Gulfstream?5th0th+4
2026-01-24Gulfstream?3rd-2th+4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today10/0724/012/0529/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 12100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.4% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
10/07/20253rd10/1195%67%-0.29
30/08/20259th15/261%11%-0.49
20/12/20252nd2/189%90%+0.01
24/01/20263rd15/261%82%+0.21
28/02/20265th5/287%33%-0.54
12/04/20263rd16/116%80%+0.64
02/05/20264th8/158%63%+0.05
11/07/20261st11/271%100%+0.29
29/08/20267th12/137%33%-0.04