6
Obstreperous
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 96
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Floral Park Stakes · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C4.6
Today:
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Monmouth Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Saratoga | ? | 4th | -1th | +4 |
| 2026-06-26 | Monmouth Park | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
| 2025-10-26 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2025-09-11 | Colonial Downs | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-08-17 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 9-12 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -0.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 11th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/05/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 82% | +0.03 |
| 15/06/2025 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 19/07/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 17/08/2025 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 11/09/2025 | 6th | 11/4 | 86% | 0% | -0.86 |
| 26/10/2025 | 7th | 9/1 | 53% | 14% | -0.38 |
| 26/06/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 11/07/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 01/08/2026 | 3rd | 5/1 | 74% | 60% | -0.14 |