4
Quiet Confidence
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 94
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Floral Park Stakes · 6f
#8
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength1%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-13 | Saratoga | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Saratoga | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-13 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-08-03 | Monmouth Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-07-03 | Saratoga | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-06-12 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength0%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/01/2025 | 5th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 09/03/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 60% | -0.08 |
| 10/04/2025 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 33% | -0.43 |
| 12/06/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 03/07/2025 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 03/08/2025 | 6th | 9/4 | 88% | 0% | -0.88 |
| 13/09/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 63% | +0.10 |
| 10/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 83% | +0.15 |
| 13/08/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |