12
Sweet Brown Sugar
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 97
Belmont Park · Race 9 - Floral Park Stakes · 6f
#10
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.0
Today:
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-01 | Monmouth Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-17 | Belmont At The Big A | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-04-19 | Aqueduct | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-21 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-02-21 | Aqueduct | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1218% of fieldRange 8-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength3%
Delivery trend -6.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 10th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/02/2025 | 1st | 5/1 | 74% | 100% | +0.26 |
| 23/02/2025 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 80% | +0.33 |
| 06/04/2025 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 75% | +0.01 |
| 21/02/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 50% | -0.21 |
| 21/03/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 19/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 17/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/1 | 47% | 86% | +0.38 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 83% | -0.09 |
| 01/08/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 20% | -0.69 |