11
Mirza Du Bouillon
4yo Filly · 0-0
Cabourg · Prix D'annebecq - Attele · 1m 5f 147y
#11
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength57%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.6 /10 (raw 6.0)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 5
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Lisieux | 2 | 8th | 4th | +3 |
| 2026-08-17 | Lisieux | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-22 | Enghien | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-07-11 | Les Sables | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Saint Galmier | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-13 | Vichy | 5 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 1620% of fieldRange 7-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength37%
Delivery trend -1.8% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 13th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/08/2025 | 8th | 50/1 | 0% | 46% | +0.46 |
| 18/03/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 01/04/2026 | 7th | 80/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 11/05/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 80% | +0.80 |
| 26/05/2026 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 13/06/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 11/07/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 55% | +0.55 |
| 17/08/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 29/08/2026 | 8th | 80/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |