15
Moon Light River
4yo Filly · 0-0
Cabourg · Prix D'annebecq - Attele · 1m 5f 147y
#10
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#10
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength38%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 5.8)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Vincennes | 4 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-31 | Cabourg | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-02 | Lisieux | 5 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-18 | Vire | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-10 | Enghien | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-02-19 | Vincennes | 4 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1660% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength69%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 16.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 42% | +0.42 |
| 26/11/2025 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 91% | +0.54 |
| 13/12/2025 | 13th | 66/1 | 0% | 14% | +0.14 |
| 01/02/2026 | 4th | 66/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 19/02/2026 | 6th | 40/1 | 0% | 62% | +0.62 |
| 18/03/2026 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 02/07/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 86% | +0.86 |
| 31/07/2026 | 11th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 22/08/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |