11
Multipass
4yo Gelding · 0-0
Cabourg · Prix De Conde-sur-noireau - Attele · 1m 5f 147y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
8%
Place Prob
20%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.3
Today: 5
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Vire | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-08 | Argentan | 4 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Cabourg | 5 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Cabourg | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-06-24 | Vichy | ? | 0 | ||
| 2026-05-15 | Vincennes | 4 | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1190% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +0.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 11.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/10/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 83% | +0.04 |
| 04/12/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 02/01/2026 | 3rd | 33/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 09/03/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 26/03/2026 | 2nd | 66/1 | 0% | 92% | +0.92 |
| 03/05/2026 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 90% | +0.90 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 82% | +0.40 |
| 08/08/2026 | 4th | 17/2 | 55% | 70% | +0.15 |
| 31/08/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |