10
Lazie Pont Vautier
5yo Filly · 9-10
Cabourg · Prix De Mortree - Monte · 1m 5f 147y
#8
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength13%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-04 | Cabourg | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-24 | La Capelle | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Argentan | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-15 | Reims | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Reims | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-07 | Le Croise-Laroche | ? | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1333% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength69%
Delivery trend -8.9% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2025 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 75% | +0.75 |
| 15/10/2025 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 23/11/2025 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 30/01/2026 | 7th | 50/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 14/03/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 85% | +0.48 |
| 15/04/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 40% | -0.23 |
| 11/05/2026 | 8th | 9/1 | 53% | 46% | -0.06 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 22/1 | 0% | 78% | +0.78 |
| 04/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |