5
Aunt Gwen's
5yo Mare · 8-13 · OR 54
Canterbury Park · Race 3 - Allowance · 7f 110y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 5.2 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-06-11 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2025-07-24 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2024-09-26 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
| 2024-09-07 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength28%
Delivery trend -4.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/09/2023 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 44% | +0.29 |
| 27/07/2024 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 75% | +0.09 |
| 22/08/2024 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 07/09/2024 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 25% | -0.43 |
| 26/09/2024 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 91% | +0.75 |
| 24/07/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 11/06/2026 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 13/08/2026 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 83% | +0.02 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 8/11 | 96% | 67% | -0.30 |