7
Erika Marie
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 66
Canterbury Park · Race 3 - Allowance · 7f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength4%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 2.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.0
Today:
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 988% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +22.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 2nd of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/08/2026 | 4th | 9/2 | 76% | 50% | -0.26 |
| 22/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/4 | 92% | 75% | -0.17 |
| 05/09/2026 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |