8
Instant Love
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 72
Canterbury Park · Race 3 - Allowance · 7f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
45%
Place Prob
46%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength45%
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 23/05/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 40% | -0.46 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 21/06/2026 | 5th | 7/2 | 82% | 20% | -0.62 |
| 12/07/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 01/08/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 25% | -0.57 |
| 05/09/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 60% | +0.02 |