6
Kaia's Choice
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 59
Canterbury Park · Race 3 - Allowance · 7f 110y
#7
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 4.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-05 | Canterbury Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-09 | Hawthorne | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2025-09-25 | Hawthorne | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-08-31 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength81%
Delivery trend +4.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/09/2024 | 6th | 11/8 | 93% | 17% | -0.76 |
| 31/08/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 83% | +0.23 |
| 25/09/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 09/10/2025 | 8th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 2/1 | 89% | 17% | -0.73 |
| 21/06/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 09/08/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |