9
Kaitskate
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 73
Canterbury Park · Race 3 - Allowance · 7f 110y
#1
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
55%
Place Prob
51%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength32%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Canterbury Park | BHA70 | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-08-01 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-06 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-23 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-09-07 | Canterbury Park | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength100%
Delivery trend +1.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 14/08/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 07/09/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 23/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 06/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 28/06/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 01/08/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 16/08/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 50% | +0.24 |