1
May Surprise
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 51
Canterbury Park · Race 3 - Allowance · 7f 110y
#9
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 6.1 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.5
Today:
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Canterbury Park | ? | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-08-13 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-23 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-02-24 | Turf Paradise | ? | 5th | 9th | −4 |
| 2026-02-05 | Turf Paradise | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 90% of fieldRange 6-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -5.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/09/2025 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 11/12/2025 | 5th | 33/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 05/02/2026 | 4th | 33/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 24/02/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 28/06/2026 | 5th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 23/07/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 60% | +0.23 |
| 13/08/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 67% | +0.06 |
| 05/09/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 17% | -0.44 |