Caught Off Guard
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 94
Canterbury Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#1
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
95%
Place Prob
71%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.9 /10 (raw 3.9)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-23 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Canterbury Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-31 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 1st | +2 |
| 2026-05-14 | Hawthorne | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-01-01 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/10/2025 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 43% | -0.23 |
| 02/11/2025 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 12/12/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 01/01/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 64% | +0.64 |
| 14/05/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 31/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 23/08/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 67% | -0.02 |
| 11/09/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |