Martini Man
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 69
Canterbury Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#8
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.7)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Canterbury Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-13 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Hawthorne | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-10-02 | Hawthorne | ? | 5th | 2nd | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/09/2024 | 1st | 4/7 | 97% | 100% | +0.03 |
| 19/09/2024 | 5th | 11/10 | 94% | 33% | -0.61 |
| 26/06/2025 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 14% | -0.67 |
| 02/10/2025 | 5th | 9/1 | 53% | 56% | +0.03 |
| 23/10/2025 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 13/06/2026 | 2nd | 4/11 | 98% | 50% | -0.48 |
| 05/07/2026 | 4th | 8/11 | 96% | 0% | -0.96 |
| 07/08/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/08/2026 | 7th | 13/8 | 91% | 25% | -0.66 |