Mr Fabricator
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 92
Canterbury Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#2
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
4%
Place Prob
14%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.0 /10 (raw 3.1)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-08-14 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-04 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-24 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-04-21 | Turf Paradise | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26/12/2025 | 3rd | 10/11 | 95% | 67% | -0.29 |
| 07/01/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 75% | -0.09 |
| 26/01/2026 | 2nd | 15/8 | 90% | 86% | -0.04 |
| 21/04/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 24/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 83% | -0.12 |
| 04/06/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 09/07/2026 | 3rd | 9/4 | 88% | 50% | -0.38 |
| 14/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 80% | -0.08 |
| 29/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 25% | -0.54 |