7
North Arm Bay
7yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 86
Canterbury Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#5
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 3.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-11 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-14 | Canterbury Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-09 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-26 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▲
Strength55%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/07/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 25% | -0.38 |
| 17/08/2025 | 6th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 7/1 | 63% | 80% | +0.17 |
| 26/06/2026 | 3rd | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 09/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 31/07/2026 | 4th | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |
| 14/08/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 22/08/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 11/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/1 | 63% | 50% | -0.13 |