3
Rowan August
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 76
Canterbury Park · Race 5 - Claiming · 1m 70y
#6
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength2%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.3 /10 (raw 4.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Canterbury Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Canterbury Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-05-24 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 2-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength37%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/03/2026 | 3rd | 3/1 | 84% | 60% | -0.24 |
| 07/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 20/04/2026 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 24/05/2026 | 4th | 6/1 | 68% | 40% | -0.28 |
| 31/05/2026 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 33% | -0.56 |
| 19/06/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 04/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 25/07/2026 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 23/08/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |