2
Big Pop
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 88
Canterbury Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
10%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength4%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Canterbury Park | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-07 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-27 | Turf Paradise | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Turf Paradise | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-02-03 | Turf Paradise | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1273% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength20%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 11/11/2025 | 6th | 6/1 | 68% | 17% | -0.52 |
| 15/01/2026 | 1st | 9/4 | 88% | 100% | +0.12 |
| 03/02/2026 | 4th | 7/4 | 91% | 25% | -0.66 |
| 30/03/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 27/04/2026 | 1st | 11/8 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 07/06/2026 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/8 | 91% | 60% | -0.31 |
| 28/08/2026 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 0% | -0.76 |