11
Long Gone Sally
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 93
Canterbury Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#7
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 3.5)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-16 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-07-26 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-06-28 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-25 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-04-04 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1236% of fieldRange 6-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength23%
Delivery trend -6.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/01/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 07/02/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 11/03/2026 | 1st | 4/5 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |
| 04/04/2026 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 57% | -0.30 |
| 25/04/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 28/06/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 75% | -0.07 |
| 26/07/2026 | 5th | 2/1 | 89% | 20% | -0.69 |
| 16/08/2026 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 75% | +0.04 |
| 13/09/2026 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |