12
Sending
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 64
Canterbury Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#12
Rank
Odds
15/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.8
Today:
Class gap: -1.3
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-07-10 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 6th | −2 |
| 2026-05-31 | Canterbury Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-04-30 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2026-04-03 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
| 2026-02-28 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 120% of fieldRange 10-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -7.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 12th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/08/2025 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 33% | -0.46 |
| 11/09/2025 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 28/12/2025 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 28/02/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 03/04/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 14% | -0.54 |
| 30/04/2026 | 9th | 25/1 | 0% | 11% | +0.11 |
| 31/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 0% | -0.58 |
| 28/08/2026 | 4th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |