6
September Magic
5yo Mare · 8-11 · OR 90
Canterbury Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#6
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#6
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength5%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.5
Today:
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-28 | Canterbury Park | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-04 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-06-21 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-05-31 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Oaklawn Park | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1255% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
Delivery trend -5.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 12. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/01/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 50% | -0.11 |
| 07/02/2026 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 63% | +0.05 |
| 13/03/2026 | 3rd | 5/2 | 87% | 71% | -0.15 |
| 17/04/2026 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 57% | +0.20 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 21/06/2026 | 2nd | 7/4 | 91% | 86% | -0.05 |
| 04/07/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 40% | -0.48 |
| 07/08/2026 | 2nd | 5/1 | 74% | 83% | +0.10 |
| 28/08/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 17% | -0.66 |