8
She Believes
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 61
Canterbury Park · Race 6 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 5f
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength15%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 2.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.4
Today:
Class gap: -0.9
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Canterbury Park | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Canterbury Park | ? | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Canterbury Park | ? | 2nd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-09-03 | Canterbury Park | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2025-08-17 | Canterbury Park | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1227% of fieldRange 5-12 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength16%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 9th of 12.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17/08/2025 | 3rd | 2/1 | 89% | 60% | -0.29 |
| 03/09/2025 | 4th | 5/2 | 87% | 50% | -0.37 |
| 31/05/2026 | 2nd | 10/11 | 95% | 75% | -0.20 |
| 04/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/5 | 94% | 75% | -0.19 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 10/11 | 95% | 0% | -0.95 |
| 29/08/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |