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4

Moondance

2yo Filly · 8-10

Chantilly · Prix Eclipse - Tattersalls - Fonds Europeen De L'elevage - Group 3 · 5f 212y

#3

Rank

Odds

6/1

Win Prob

3%

Place Prob

10%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 4.9 /10 (raw 2.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.1
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Le Mans 21/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 5f102y Gd 12421/04C53 @ Saint-Cloud 29/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR - · 5f212y GS 13029/0533 @ Chantilly 19/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR - · 5f212y Gd 12719/0631 @ Mont De Marsan 26/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 5f212y GS 12426/0712 @ Deauville 13/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR - · 6f101y Sft 12213/082projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 5
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-13Deauville22nd4th−1
2026-07-26Mont De Marsan12nd2nd−0
2026-06-19Chantilly35th8th−2
2026-05-29Saint-Cloud32nd5th−2
2026-04-21Le Mans?1st6th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today21/0429/0519/0626/0713/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 767% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength86%

Delivery trend -0.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 7.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
21/04/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
29/05/20262nd8/158%86%+0.28
19/06/20265th9/488%56%-0.33
26/07/20262nd28/10%88%+0.88
13/08/20262nd5/493%83%-0.10