16
Simply Lovely
8yo Gelding · 8-8
Chantilly · Prix Du Cabinet Des Livres Handicap · 5f 212y
#3
Rank
Odds
28/1
Win Prob
16%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength14%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.1)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Vichy | 3 | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Deauville | 1 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-28 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chantilly | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-14 | Chantilly | 2 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Fontainebleau | 2 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1653% of fieldRange 6-16 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength17%
Delivery trend +4.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 8th of 16. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/08/2025 | 15th | 8/1 | 58% | 18% | -0.40 |
| 14/10/2025 | 13th | 6/1 | 68% | 14% | -0.54 |
| 28/02/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 46% | +0.09 |
| 17/03/2026 | 5th | 15/2 | 61% | 71% | +0.11 |
| 14/04/2026 | 9th | 10/1 | 47% | 47% | -0.01 |
| 12/05/2026 | 2nd | 9/2 | 76% | 93% | +0.17 |
| 28/05/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 02/08/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 59% | +0.59 |
| 03/09/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 13% | -0.61 |