4
Evita
3yo Filly · 8-11
Chantilly · Prix Bertrand De Tarragon - Fonds Europeen De L'elevage Stakes - Group 3 · 1m 208y
#7
Rank
Odds
6/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength21%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 10th | 10th | −0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Deauville | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Chantilly | 1 | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-05-10 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 3rd | 3rd | +0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Chantilly | 2 | 2nd | 4th | −1 |
| 2025-09-20 | Chantilly | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 814% of fieldRange 2-8 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▼
Strength29%
Delivery trend -12.8% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 7th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/09/2025 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 02/04/2026 | 2nd | 1/1 | 95% | 86% | -0.09 |
| 10/05/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 60% | -0.06 |
| 14/06/2026 | 5th | 66/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 02/08/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 86% | -0.02 |
| 03/09/2026 | 10th | 3/1 | 84% | 25% | -0.59 |