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2

Noche Clasica

4yo Filly · 9-3 · OR 106

Chantilly · Prix Bertrand De Tarragon - Fonds Europeen De L'elevage Stakes - Group 3 · 1m 208y

#3

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

4%

Rank

#3

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲1
Strength21%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 3.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.4
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chester 31/05/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 7f1y Gd 12831/0544 @ Goodwood 22/08/2025 · Pos 1st of 5 · OR 76 · 1m Goo 133 · beat its mark22/08/2025 · OR 76 par2 @ Ascot 06/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 83 · 1m GS 121 · beat its mark06/09/2025 · OR 83 par6/092OR 833 @ Redcar 27/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 83 · 7f219y Goo 130 · beat its mark27/10/2025 · OR 83 par3 @ Musselburgh 12/04/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 89 · 1m208y Gd 129 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 89 par12/043OR 891 @ Haydock 23/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 96 · 1m2f100y Goo 128 · beat its mark23/05/2026 · OR 96 par1 @ Royal Ascot 17/06/2026 · Pos 15th of 15 · OR 98 · 7f213y GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark17/06/2026 · OR 98 par17/061OR 981 @ Haydock 08/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 98 · 7f212y Goo 130 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 98 par1 @ Sandown 29/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 98 · 1m GS 132 · beat its mark29/08/2026 · OR 98 par29/081OR 98projClass-projected finish: 4th of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-29Sandown12nd2nd0
2026-08-08Haydock15th5th−0
2026-06-17Royal Ascot115th15th+0
2026-05-23Haydock14th4th−0
2026-04-12Musselburgh31st4th−2
2025-10-27Redcar31st4th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today31/0527/1017/0629/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 886% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength68%

Delivery trend -2.3% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 8. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
31/05/20251st16/116%100%+0.84
22/08/20251st7/491%100%+0.09
06/09/20253rd5/287%71%-0.15
27/10/20251st3/184%100%+0.16
12/04/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
23/05/20264th4/179%57%-0.22
17/06/202615th40/10%0%0.00
08/08/20265th15/261%56%-0.05
29/08/20262nd14/126%89%+0.63