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5

Pierchic

3yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 86

Chantilly · Prix Bertrand De Tarragon - Fonds Europeen De L'elevage Stakes - Group 3 · 1m 208y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/5

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

12%

Rank

#2

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength41%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 2.9)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.6
Today: 1
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Wolverhampton 04/11/2025 · Pos 3rd of 4 · OR - · 7f36y Std 1284/1155 @ Chelmsford City 27/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR - · 7f Std 1285 @ Kempton 10/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 7f Sta 13510/1251 @ Bordeaux Le Bouscat 27/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 86 · 7f209y Sft 122 · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 86 par1 @ ParisLongchamp 12/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 86 · 7f209y GS 125 · beat its mark12/04/2026 · OR 86 par12/041OR 861 @ Chantilly 04/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 86 · 7f209y GS 125 · beat its mark04/05/2026 · OR 86 par1 @ Chantilly 31/05/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 86 · 7f209y Sft 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark31/05/2026 · OR 86 par31/051OR 861 @ Chantilly 19/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 86 · 1m208y Sft 123 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 86 par1 @ Deauville 23/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 86 · 1m1f207y Sft 123 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/08/2026 · OR 86 par23/081OR 86projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 8
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-23Deauville14th4th+0
2026-07-19Chantilly12nd2nd0
2026-05-31Chantilly14th4th+0
2026-05-04Chantilly15th5th−0
2026-04-12ParisLongchamp13rd3rd0
2026-03-27Bordeaux Le Bouscat12nd3rd−0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/1127/0331/0523/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 1-2 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +6.6% per run

What the projection says

Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/11/20253rd4/179%33%-0.46
27/11/20251st13/266%100%+0.34
10/12/20252nd5/696%88%-0.08
27/03/20262nd11/271%88%+0.16
12/04/20263rd28/10%67%+0.67
04/05/20265th5/287%43%-0.44
31/05/20264th4/179%57%-0.22
19/07/20262nd12/137%83%+0.46
23/08/20264th100/10%67%+0.67