4
Batal Youmzain
4yo Colt · 8-11
Chantilly · Prix Tilbury - Gueudet Agri Oise&Marne Stakes - Awt · 1m 1f 97y
#5
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength25%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 3.9)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.1
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.1
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Chantilly | 3 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-08-21 | Clairefontaine | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-06 | Deauville | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
| 2025-10-11 | Chantilly | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2025-09-14 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-08-16 | Deauville | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 938% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength55%
Delivery trend +3.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 6th of 9. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/05/2025 | 5th | 3/1 | 84% | 20% | -0.64 |
| 14/06/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 31/07/2025 | 1st | 13/2 | 66% | 100% | +0.34 |
| 16/08/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 14/09/2025 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 15% | -0.32 |
| 11/10/2025 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 06/11/2025 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 21/08/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 04/09/2026 | 7th | 7/2 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |