6
Ciaran
4yo Colt · 8-11
Chantilly · Prix Tilbury - Gueudet Agri Oise&Marne Stakes - Awt · 1m 1f 97y
#7
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.7 /10 (raw 3.8)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.6
Today: 2
Class gap: -0.6
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-12-19 | Chantilly | ? | 6th | 9th | −3 |
| 2025-11-21 | Chantilly | ? | 3rd | 6th | −3 |
| 2025-11-09 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-10-15 | Nantes | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-08-10 | Deauville | ? | 2nd | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-04-25 | Compiegne | ? | 1st | 4th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 913% of fieldRange 5-9 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25/05/2024 | 1st | 7/2 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 16/06/2024 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 17/07/2024 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 25/04/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 10/08/2025 | 2nd | 20/1 | 0% | 91% | +0.91 |
| 15/10/2025 | 2nd | 2/1 | 89% | 89% | -0.01 |
| 09/11/2025 | 10th | 10/1 | 47% | 10% | -0.37 |
| 21/11/2025 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 78% | +0.09 |
| 19/12/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 44% | -0.35 |