Dioptase
4yo Gelding · 8-11
Chantilly · Prix Tilbury - Gueudet Agri Oise&Marne Stakes - Awt · 1m 1f 97y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
73%
Place Prob
46%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.6 /10 (raw 4.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-21 | Clairefontaine | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Dieppe | 2 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Saint-Cloud | 1 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-31 | Chantilly | 1 | 13th | 12th | +1 |
| 2026-03-13 | Meydan | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-02-28 | Meydan | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +0.5% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 2nd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 15/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 75% | -0.01 |
| 09/01/2026 | 4th | 50/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 28/02/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 13/03/2026 | 10th | 20/1 | 0% | 31% | +0.31 |
| 31/05/2026 | 13th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 28/06/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 33% | -0.40 |
| 30/07/2026 | 2nd | 16/1 | 16% | 88% | +0.72 |
| 21/08/2026 | 2nd | 4/1 | 79% | 75% | -0.04 |