3
Involvement
5yo Gelding · 9-1 · OR 101
Chantilly · Prix Tilbury - Gueudet Agri Oise&Marne Stakes - Awt · 1m 1f 97y
#1
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
20%
Place Prob
24%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength56%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 5 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.0
Today: 2
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 5
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-29 | Sandown | 2 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Goodwood | 1 | 8th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-04 | Beverley | 1 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Goodwood | 1 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-22 | Goodwood | 1 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-04-12 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▬
Strength73%
Delivery trend -0.7% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21/09/2024 | 5th | 4/1 | 79% | 50% | -0.29 |
| 06/02/2026 | 11th | 20/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 06/03/2026 | 1st | 12/1 | 37% | 100% | +0.63 |
| 12/04/2026 | 3rd | 9/2 | 76% | 67% | -0.10 |
| 22/05/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 63% | +0.15 |
| 07/06/2026 | 6th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 04/07/2026 | 3rd | 17/2 | 55% | 50% | -0.05 |
| 01/08/2026 | 8th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/08/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |