9
Lakota Beau
4yo Colt · 8-11
Chantilly · Prix Tilbury - Gueudet Agri Oise&Marne Stakes - Awt · 1m 1f 97y
#8
Rank
Odds
16/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.9 /10 (raw 5.1)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.0
Today: 2
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Deauville | 1 | 8th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Dieppe | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-14 | Chantilly | 1 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-04-16 | ParisLongchamp | 2 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2026-03-16 | Chantilly | ? | 8th | 11th | −3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 925% of fieldRange 4-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength34%
Delivery trend -1.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 7th of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2025 | 1st | 11/1 | 42% | 100% | +0.58 |
| 05/08/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 15/09/2025 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 13% | -0.24 |
| 16/03/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 42% | +0.36 |
| 16/04/2026 | 12th | 16/1 | 16% | 21% | +0.06 |
| 14/06/2026 | 7th | 16/1 | 16% | 65% | +0.49 |
| 05/07/2026 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 60% | +0.34 |
| 30/07/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 75% | +0.33 |
| 15/08/2026 | 8th | 66/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |