8
Un Instant
5yo Colt · 8-11
Chantilly · Prix Tilbury - Gueudet Agri Oise&Marne Stakes - Awt · 1m 1f 97y
#4
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength47%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 5 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C0.8
Today: 2
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 6
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Deauville | 1 | 6th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Deauville | 1 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Vichy | 1 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-06-20 | Marseille | 1 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-05-06 | Marseille-borely | 1 | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Saint-Cloud | 1 | 6th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength91%
Delivery trend +1.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 9.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09/11/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 40% | -0.21 |
| 24/01/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 15/02/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 22% | -0.20 |
| 29/03/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 44% | +0.44 |
| 06/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 80% | -0.07 |
| 20/06/2026 | 4th | 10/3 | 82% | 50% | -0.32 |
| 24/07/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 09/08/2026 | 5th | 28/1 | 0% | 79% | +0.79 |
| 30/08/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |