8
Fuchsia
9yo Mare · 9-2
Chantilly · Prix Du Roi Des Manuscrits Handicap · 5f 212y
#8
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.4)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 3
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Dieppe | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-08-22 | Deauville | 3 | 16th | 16th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Deauville | 2 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Dieppe | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | 3 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-06-06 | Dieppe | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength87%
Delivery trend -4.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/12/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 24/04/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 54% | +0.54 |
| 17/05/2026 | 7th | 8/1 | 58% | 57% | -0.01 |
| 06/06/2026 | 1st | 16/1 | 16% | 100% | +0.84 |
| 23/06/2026 | 2nd | 12/1 | 37% | 93% | +0.56 |
| 13/07/2026 | 1st | 6/1 | 68% | 100% | +0.32 |
| 02/08/2026 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 87% | +0.34 |
| 22/08/2026 | 16th | 9/1 | 53% | 0% | -0.53 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 92% | +0.34 |