4
Gallius
4yo Gelding · 9-5
Chantilly · Prix Du Roi Des Manuscrits Handicap · 5f 212y
#5
Rank
Odds
18/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength26%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.1 /10 (raw 5.7)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C2.7
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Vichy | 3 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Deauville | 3 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Deauville | 2 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Vichy | 4 | 5th | 6th | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Dieppe | 2 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | 2 | 16th | 15th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 8-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength13%
Delivery trend +0.2% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 22/04/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 69% | -0.07 |
| 28/04/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 45% | -0.23 |
| 31/05/2026 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 42% | +0.36 |
| 23/06/2026 | 16th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/07/2026 | 12th | 40/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 24/07/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 71% | +0.35 |
| 02/08/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 67% | +0.40 |
| 22/08/2026 | 13th | 9/1 | 53% | 20% | -0.33 |
| 03/09/2026 | 5th | 8/1 | 58% | 50% | -0.08 |