13
Hatfaville
5yo Filly · 8-9
Chantilly · Prix Du Roi Des Manuscrits Handicap · 5f 212y
#4
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength24%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.4
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Deauville | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-12 | Saint-Cloud | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-05-03 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-26 | Chantilly | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-02-19 | Chantilly | 4 | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-12-18 | Deauville | ? | 10th | 10th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 3-9 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength62%
Delivery trend -1.7% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/08/2025 | 9th | 33/1 | 0% | 47% | +0.47 |
| 05/09/2025 | 13th | 28/1 | 0% | 8% | +0.08 |
| 02/10/2025 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 57% | +0.57 |
| 18/12/2025 | 10th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 19/02/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 93% | +0.24 |
| 26/03/2026 | 3rd | 12/1 | 37% | 85% | +0.48 |
| 03/05/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 64% | +0.38 |
| 12/06/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 09/08/2026 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |