6
Fata Morgana
3yo Filly · 9-2
Chantilly · Prix De La Galerie De La Peinture Handicap · 5f 212y
#15
Rank
Odds
5/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#15
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.8
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-15 | Deauville | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Clairefontaine | 3 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-05-21 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-04-12 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-03-24 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-11-29 | Lignieres | ? | 1st | 3rd | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1536% of fieldRange 1-11 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength93%
Delivery trend -2.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 10th of 15. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02/07/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |
| 09/08/2025 | 4th | 28/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |
| 29/11/2025 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 24/03/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 69% | +0.43 |
| 12/04/2026 | 4th | 14/1 | 26% | 79% | +0.52 |
| 21/05/2026 | 8th | 5/1 | 74% | 53% | -0.20 |
| 06/07/2026 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 27% | -0.44 |
| 15/08/2026 | 2nd | 33/1 | 0% | 93% | +0.93 |