5
Regalien
7yo Horse · 9-2
Chantilly · Prix De La Galerie De La Peinture Handicap · 5f 212y
#3
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
4%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength38%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.7 /10 (raw 6.4)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 3
Class gap: +0.8
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-10 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Deauville | 2 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-08-02 | Deauville | 1 | 16th | 14th | +2 |
| 2026-06-23 | Dieppe | 2 | 12th | 11th | +1 |
| 2026-05-28 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chantilly | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1579% of fieldRange 7-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength28%
Delivery trend -0.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 4th of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05/04/2026 | 14th | 33/1 | 0% | 13% | +0.13 |
| 14/04/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 22/04/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 12/05/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 60% | +0.60 |
| 28/05/2026 | 8th | 12/1 | 37% | 30% | -0.07 |
| 23/06/2026 | 12th | 25/1 | 0% | 27% | +0.27 |
| 02/08/2026 | 16th | 33/1 | 0% | 12% | +0.12 |
| 22/08/2026 | 11th | 66/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 10/09/2026 | 9th | 66/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |