11
Tudo Bem
10yo Gelding · 8-12
Chantilly · Prix De La Galerie De La Peinture Handicap · 5f 212y
#1
Rank
Odds
30/1
Win Prob
99%
Place Prob
80%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength53%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 6.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Vichy | 3 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-22 | Deauville | 3 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-12 | Vichy | 4 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Vichy | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-07-13 | Dieppe | ? | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-05-12 | Chantilly | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1586% of fieldRange 10-15 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▬
Strength18%
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 3rd of 15.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/01/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 27/01/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 45% | +0.09 |
| 15/02/2026 | 6th | 22/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 12/05/2026 | 8th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 13/07/2026 | 6th | 9/1 | 53% | 58% | +0.06 |
| 24/07/2026 | 3rd | 13/2 | 66% | 86% | +0.20 |
| 12/08/2026 | 1st | 13/8 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 22/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/1 | 42% | 87% | +0.45 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |