1
Culcor
7yo Gelding · 9-6
Chantilly · Prix Des Tres Riches Heures Du Duc De Berry Handicap · 5f 212y
#11
Rank
Odds
40/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 6.8)
Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.5
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-22 | Deauville | 3 | 15th | 15th | 0 |
| 2026-04-02 | Chantilly | 3 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-03-17 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-03-06 | Fontainebleau | 3 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-12-09 | Chantilly | ? | 9th | 11th | −2 |
| 2025-11-13 | Fontainebleau | ? | 7th | 9th | −2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish14th of 140% of fieldRange 10-14 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -6.0% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/10/2023 | 3rd | 14/1 | 26% | 83% | +0.57 |
| 20/10/2023 | 8th | 18/1 | 5% | 46% | +0.41 |
| 25/10/2025 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 13/11/2025 | 7th | 66/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 09/12/2025 | 9th | 40/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 06/03/2026 | 4th | 25/1 | 0% | 73% | +0.73 |
| 17/03/2026 | 7th | 6/1 | 68% | 57% | -0.11 |
| 02/04/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 58% | -0.15 |
| 22/08/2026 | 15th | 28/1 | 0% | 7% | +0.07 |