11
El Madar
4yo Gelding · 8-6
Chantilly · Prix Des Tres Riches Heures Du Duc De Berry Handicap · 5f 212y
#5
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength17%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.1 /10 (raw 6.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.7
Today: 3
Class gap: -0.7
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-07-13 | Dieppe | 3 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | ParisLongchamp | 3 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Evreux | 4 | 11th | 12th | −1 |
| 2026-05-17 | Le Croise-Laroche | 4 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Chateaubriant | 4 | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-04-24 | Saint-Cloud | 4 | 10th | 11th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish8th of 1446% of fieldRange 12-14 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -8.1% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 8th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13/03/2026 | 7th | 28/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 31/03/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 50% | +0.34 |
| 14/04/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 93% | +0.41 |
| 24/04/2026 | 10th | 5/2 | 87% | 31% | -0.56 |
| 05/05/2026 | 3rd | 8/1 | 58% | 75% | +0.17 |
| 17/05/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 64% | +0.04 |
| 26/05/2026 | 11th | 10/1 | 47% | 9% | -0.38 |
| 18/06/2026 | 7th | 18/1 | 5% | 50% | +0.45 |
| 13/07/2026 | 13th | 17/2 | 55% | 0% | -0.55 |