3
Hey Nigh Teen
4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 49
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#3
Rank
Odds
8/1
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength40%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 5.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-11 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-06-19 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-10 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-04-18 | Charles Town | ? | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 857% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength30%
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/10/2025 | 2nd | 8/1 | 58% | 80% | +0.22 |
| 29/11/2025 | 8th | 4/1 | 79% | 22% | -0.57 |
| 24/01/2026 | 6th | 15/2 | 61% | 44% | -0.16 |
| 18/04/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 10/05/2026 | 6th | 25/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 30/05/2026 | 4th | 5/1 | 74% | 67% | -0.07 |
| 19/06/2026 | 1st | 5/4 | 93% | 100% | +0.07 |
| 11/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 16/08/2026 | 7th | 4/1 | 79% | 0% | -0.79 |