7
Malibu Miss
3yo Filly · 8-8 · OR 51
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#4
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
5%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▬
Strength34%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.1 /10 (raw 4.6)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.8
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-16 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-01 | Charles Town | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-10 | Charles Town | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2026-06-19 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 5th | −1 |
| 2026-05-30 | Charles Town | ? | 8th | 9th | −1 |
| 2026-05-16 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 3-8 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price
Trend▲
Strength37%
Delivery trend +9.1% per run
What the projection says
Consistently finishes ahead of what its market price implied — the model reads it well above the odds. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/04/2026 | 4th | 3/1 | 84% | 50% | -0.34 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 67% | -0.12 |
| 16/05/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 30/05/2026 | 8th | 16/1 | 16% | 22% | +0.06 |
| 19/06/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 40% | -0.13 |
| 10/07/2026 | 1st | 11/2 | 71% | 100% | +0.29 |
| 01/08/2026 | 7th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |
| 16/08/2026 | 3rd | 20/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |