5
Medallion Of Ash
5yo Mare · 8-12 · OR 67
Charles Town · Race 1 - Claiming · 4f 110y
#2
Rank
Odds
2/1
Win Prob
62%
Place Prob
40%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼2
Strength74%
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.8
Today:
Class gap: +1.7
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-11-29 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-11-14 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2025-10-23 | Charles Town | ? | 6th | 3rd | +3 |
| 2025-09-26 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-06-28 | Charles Town | ? | 4th | 1st | +3 |
| 2025-01-12 | Charles Town | ? | 3rd | 0th | +3 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 8100% of fieldRange 2-5 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength68%
Delivery trend -7.7% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/12/2024 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 12/01/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 28/06/2025 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 57% | +0.05 |
| 26/09/2025 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 57% | +0.10 |
| 23/10/2025 | 6th | 16/1 | 16% | 17% | +0.01 |
| 14/11/2025 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 67% | -0.16 |
| 29/11/2025 | 3rd | 4/1 | 79% | 71% | -0.08 |